Lowest temperatures here this morning for the Fall so far. Low at house was 37 F and I could see my breath while walking - first time for that in many months. I am having some challenges with my low temperature readings and I'll discuss that in a later post. Temperatures in the valleys fell to low 30s F this morning and I see that Empire RAWS site hit 32 F. Coldest lows were at the high elevations this morning with the RAWS sites at Rincon and Sollers (Mt. Lemmon) dropping to 29 and 30 F respectively. Coldest I saw was 22 F at the Columbine site on Mt. Graham. Still expect that temperatures will fall to freezing or below here in the north part of Tucson, along the Rillito tomorrow morning.
Yesterday the afternoon showers stayed mostly to the east of Tucson metro as forecast quite well by the early WRF-NAM. Rain fell at the highest elevations of the ALERT network and at the east edge, with 6 sites recording rainfall. The low elevation Tucson forecast zone remained essentially rain free yesterday. The plot of CG flashes above is for 24-hours ending at 11:00 pm MST last night. Some thunderstorm activity developed over the Rincons and Santa Ritas, but with most storm activity to the east in Cochise County.
Vance is now a Category 2 hurricane and is moving northward. The IR image below is from 1430 UTC this morning and indicates significant cold cloud areas north-to-northeast and southeast of the storm's center. The NHC forecast has changed little since yesterday, with moisture from Vance to have most impact over north-central Mexico and parts of Texas. The ECMWF has been bouncing all over the place and current versions continue to form a 500 mb closed low over Mexico, but that feature is now further south and east than in yesterday's forecast, and Arizona remains mostly under the influence of the ridging behind the short wave.
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