Thursday, January 29, 2015

Quick Look At WRF This Morning

Mike Leuthold did a much more detailed discussion last evening and it can be found here


The day has dawned heavy, dark, and damp and precipitation may begin a bit earlier this afternoon than the models are indicating. Already sprinkling here at the house.


Satellite products continue to show a very broad plume of subtropical moisture moving northward into the Southwest. The IR image above and the CIRA blended PW analysis below are both from 13 UTC (6:00 am MST) this morning.


All of the various models available to forecasters continue to indicate a major precipitation event for the Southwest, with a focus continuing to emphasize large rainfall amounts over southeast Arizona. Forecast below is from the WRF-NAM forecast run at 06 UTC this morning. The forecast shows accumulated precipitation through 11 pm MST on Saturday night (the 31st).

The WRF models continue to keep the most significant snowfall up in the White Mountains, since this is another relatively warm system. The WRF also tries to backdoor a Plains front across the Continental Divide, bringing a complicating surge of strong easterly winds into parts of southeast Arizona. The latest runs weaken this front to our northeast as precipitation begins in earnest. But yet another feature to keep and eye on.


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