The WRF forecasts for yesterday from Atmo were again very good, with significant showers and thunderstorms staying north and east of Pima County, as the models indicated. Detected CG flashes through midnight last night are shown above - from Vaisala and Atmo. Almost no flashes indicated in Pima, Santa Cruz and Cochise Countries. There were light showers over parts of eastern Pima County, with 22 ALERT sites measuring 0.04" or more for the 24-hours ending at 5:00 am MST this morning. Amounts were light to very light and occurred from early am through early afternoon. Here at the house we had 0.02" in a shower around noon.
Across southern Arizona PW values are ranging from about three quarters of an inch to around an inch, with higher amounts out to the west, as shown by the 10 UTC blended PW analysis above from CIRA at Colorado State. High PW amounts remain fairly far south, across the lower GoC. The cold, 500 mb low is forecast by the models to move right across our area - forecast below from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast is valid at 10:00 am tomorrow morning. The models forecast only light precipitation, except for at some high elevations, for southeastern Arizona as this system moves across our region. The closed low is forecast to dig south and then southwestward over the next several days, ending up west of Baja over the Pacific. Perhaps it will make a second pass through Arizona at some point.
From the 06 UTC WRF forecasts the GFS version is much wetter than is the NAM version. Forecast above is WRF-GFS composite radar echoes valid at noon today, while forecast below shows GFS precipitation through midnight tonight. So, the models continue to keep the more significant rains with this system to our north and over the Catalinas.
No comments:
Post a Comment