Saturday, February 18, 2017

Status - AM Saturday February 18th

Saturday dawns mostly cloudy, but with a patch of blue beyond the Catalinas. Kitt Peak however is shrouded within dense cloudiness.

Current early morning forecast for the airport from NWS above. Winds are already gusty this morning. The 50% for overnight did not happen in eastern Pima County, but showers are nearby. This morning's 12 UTC 500 mb analysis below, from NCAR, shows the strong short-wave stretching from central California down all the way to west of the the end of Baja - unusually far south.

Radar above from NWS Tucson indicates light showers out to our southwest, but radar from Yuma below indicates widespread shower activity over northern GoC and lower Colorado River Basin (both radar depictions from just a bit after 07:00 am MST).

The midnight run of the WRF-GFS model at Atmo continues to forecast a large rainfall donut hole over lower elevations of all of southeast Arizona - forecast below is for total precipitation through 06:00 am on Monday morning. Light amounts likely being caused in model by strong, downsloping winds. But, I suspect that model may be a bit too dry - we'll wait and see.


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