Thursday, April 27, 2017

Two More Days Of Critical Fire Conditions

Forecasts indicate at least two more days of critical fire weather for southeast Arizona, as April draws to a precipitation-free end. The 06 UTF WRF-GFS forecast of 10-m winds above is valid at 03:00 pm MST tomorrow afternoon, when winds are expected to be strongest. The forecast sounding for Sonoita (south-southwest of the Sawmill Fire) is valid at the same time.

The fire is at least 40% contained this morning (40% number is from last evening's incident report) and I don't see any hotspots on the IR channel 2 imagery this morning. So, the situation seems to have improved some during the night. However, winds are already gusting over 20 mph this morning at both Pioneer Airfield and the Empire RAWS site.

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