Monday, May 08, 2017

Good Chance For Light May Rains

GEFS plumes for QPF (from the 06 UTC 8 May run) at the airport are forecasting 100 % POPs for tomorrow afternoon, with some chances for showers before and after. This is a another moisture-starved system that is carrying along a limited pool of PW with it - same as all of our Spring events this year. The 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast from Atmo (below) forecasts a Tucson donut hole, with better amounts at higher elevations - the forecast is for total precipitation through 11:00 am MST on Thursday.

Forecast soundings from that WRF-GFS run indicate enough CAPE at TWC for thunderstorms - sounding above is valid at midnight tonight and that below is valid at 02:00 pm tomorrow afternoon. Both indicate upward vertical velocity through the important mixed-phase zone from -10 to -20 C, and the nighttime sounding (if it verified) would have strongest upward motion through that zone. Perhaps a crash of thunder at some spots during the night tonight? Note also that steering winds tonight favor very fast-moving storms heading toward the north-northwest.

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