Thursday, May 04, 2017

First 100 F Today?

As a strong 500 mb ridge moves eastward over the Southwest (see 12 UTC analysis for today, above from NCAR)  today and tomorrow, Tucson will likely record the first 100 F high temperature at the airport for 2017. The ridge will eventually be replaced by a significant closed low at 500 mb early next week.

In the shorter term, the developing system will first bring strong winds to Arizona over the weekend. The graphic above shows the GEFS plumes for the 10-m winds at the airport. The 06 UTC WRF-GFS wind forecast below is valid at noon on Saturday, May 6th.  

 Then as the cold low moves by, the GEFS precipitation plumes (below) show a decent chance for at least light showers at the airport, particularly on the 9th (Tuesday).

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