Monday, May 20, 2019

Unsettled Week Ahead

Cool and unsettled week ahead as 500 mb trough persists over the West. Some light showers and sprinkles around metro area this morning.

This morning's 500 mb analysis (above from NAM) indicates short-wave trough over southern California. The 12 hour forecast, valid at 00 UTC this evening (below), has the short wave over eastern Arizona and New Mexico, as a trailing short wave digs southeastward.

Plot of CG flash density (above - 12 hours ending at 7:00 am MST this morning - from and Vaisala) indicates some thunderstorm activity occurred north of Catalinas. WRF-GFS forecast from Atmo run at 06 UTC forecasts light showers for our area (forecast below ends at midnight tonight).

The Storm Prediction Center forecasts a major outbreak of severe thunderstorms over the southern Plains today, as the strong short-wave approaches.

Some snow yesterday and last night in northern Arizona - view below from a bit after 7:00 am is at the south entrance to the Grand Canyon.

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