Monday, December 27, 2021

Unsettled End Of Year

Colorful sunrises this morning around 7:15 am MST - above Catalinas from campus, and bottom view along I-10 from Wilcox,

The year is going out with a large trough holding over the western US. Graphic above shows the 06 UTC GFS forecast for 500 mb valid at 11:00 am on Friday, the 31st of December. Note the two very strong short waves in the trough, with the southern one about to move across southern Arizona and northern Mexico. It will be followed by the second wave as the New Year begins. 

Forecast above (from the 00 UTC WRF-GFS run) shows total precipitation through 5:00 pm on Sunday January second, while panel below shows snow accumulations (from same run and same period). Note there is snow indicated at higher elevations of southeast Arizona; however, the color scale is very vague and hard to read from 19 through 43 inches, so amounts forecast are hard to discern. 


The GFS forecast of total precipitation through 5:00 pm on the second of January is shown above. Below is this morning's wet forecast from the NWS Forecast Office through the day Friday.



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