Wednesday, January 10, 2024

Chance For Rain Tomorrow



Morning sun at 7:45 am MST this morning, highlighting Flattop and Finger Rock.

NOTE - Thanks for the comment alerting me that "Flattop" is actually Table Mountain.

Forecasts bring abrupt changes for tomorrow, as a strong, 500 mb short wave passes through Arizona - above shows 12 UTC GFS forecast for 500 mb at 11:00 am tomorrow.

Current morning forecast from NWS Forecast Office (above) for the airport calls for 80% POPs for rain tomorrow, along with an advisory for strong winds.

The GEFS plumes (from 00 UTC last evening - above) for QPF at airport all indicate rain, with average amounts around a tenth of an inch tomorrow. However, the morning WRF forecasts keep the precipitation well to our north - below shows 12Z WRF-RR precipitation totals through midnight tomorrow. 


The  GEFS plumes for winds (above) at the airport indicates steady speeds around 25 mph. Current NWS forecast calls for gusts as high as 45 mph at airport tomorrow. The WR-RR run (below) indicates steady speeds at airport of 29 mph at 11:00 am. Models agree on the strong winds but differ on precipitation locations - so an interesting day on tap tomorrow.

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