Quick Update

View of heavy clouds over Catalinas at 6:30 am MST this morning - skies are mostly clear now.

Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo) for 24-hours ending at 6:33 am this morning indicates that thunderstorms mostly stayed south of the metro area. ALERT plot below shows that light rainfall fell across most of the southern portion of the network - check of timing showed that precipitation fell after midnight. We had 0.04" in the gauge here that apparently fell around 4:30 am this early morning.

Mostly Dry Yesterday

View of Rincons at 5:30 am MST this morning, with bright helicopter or airplane.

Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo - above) shows a large region with no activity stretching from metro Tucson northward. Following the light, pre-dawn shower yesterday, rest of day was fair and dry here.

Not many reports over northern portion of the ALERT network for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am (above), but more reports over southern part of the network (below), with a heavy amount just west of Green Valley.

The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (above) indicate chances for light showers through the coming week - early morning showers did not materialize today. The GEFS POPs for the airport (below) indicate 30 to 60 percent chances most days. 

The 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast of rainfall through noon tomorrow (above) shows very dry conditions across much of Arizona. Current morning forecast for the airport from NWS (below) calls for slight chances today. 

Haboob Hits Phoenix

 The very severe storm that hit Phoenix yesterday gets its own separate post. 

The observations from PHX (above) show gusts to 70 mph around 5:50 pm yesterday, along with 0 visibility. Blurb below is from the Weather Channel.

Scattered Showers Yesterday and Early Today

Sunrise colors over the Catalinas at 6:00 am MST this morning.

Plot of detected CG flashes through 1053 UTC this morning (above from Atmo) shows a bit of a donut hole over eastern Pima County.

ALERT reports through 7:00 am (above and below) also show bit of donut hole, but with some heavy amounts north side of Catalinas and out west of I-10.

MesoWest reports across metro area through 9:00 am (above, from Univ. of Utah) show light amounts scattered across the city. We had thunder and a Trace yesterday afternoon, and 0.02" before sunrise this morning.

Quite a few severe winds reported by SPC (above) yesterday in southern Arizona and southern California. Nearest report to Tucson was a gust to 62 mph at Marana. Couple of sites in California reported wind gusts of 75 and 76 mph.

Forecast of total rainfall from the 15 UTC WRF-HRRR run (above) indicates heavy storms this afternoon over eastern Pima County. The current morning forecasts from the NWS are shown in two graphics below.

Suppressed Yesterday

Very hazy view of the Catalinas at 6:40 am MST this morning. At bottom is view of the Rincons at 5:40 am this morning.

MesoWest precipitation from Univ. of Utah, ending at 1421 UTC (7:21 am). It was very suppressed yesterday with no rainfall reported above, nor in the ALERT Network. 

A large anticyclone at 500 mb extends east-southeastward from Utah all the way into southern Mississippi. Note the warm reading of -4 C at Phoenix.

The GEFS 06 UTC plumes for QPF (above) indicate little chance for rain at the airport until mid-week next week. The 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast below indicates no rainfall for southeast Arizona through noon tomorrow.

Forecast POPs from the 06 run of the GFS (above) show high values for Tuesday and Wednesday next week. Current NWS morning forecast (below) highlights an Excessive Heat Warning for today and tomorrow

Some Showers Yesterday

View toward the Rincons at 5:35 am MST this morning.

Plot of detected CG flashes through 0733 UTC this morning shows storm activity over east-central Pima County, mostly avoiding the main metro area.

Rainfall occurred over the northern and southwestern parts of the ALERT Network through 7:00 am this morning (above and below). Here at the house we had some rumbling thunder during the early evening, but no rainfall. August here continues very dry, with only 0.27" here at the house.

The GEFS plumes for QPF at the airport (above) indicate only slight chances for rain until the end of next week. The GEFS POPs for measurable rain at airport (below) show higher POPs for airport  before the end of the month. The 06 UTC GFS forecast for precipitation amounts through end of August (second below)  show substantial rainfall across all of Arizona. Time will tell

Quick Update

View of Catalinas at 5:50 am MST this morning.

There were isolated thunderstorms around eastern portions of Pima County yesterday - as per plot of detected CG flashes ending at 1203 UTC (above - from Atmo).

Only a few scattered ALERT sites picked up 0.04" rainfall or more during 24 hours ending at 6:00 am this morning. We had some loud thunder here around 4:30 pm yesterday afternoon, but only a light shower that left 0.01" in my gauge.

Current morning forecast from the NWS for the airport through tomorrow shown above. The 15 UTC WRF-HRRR forecast for rainfall through noon tomorrow is shown below (also from Atmo).

Isolated Showers yesterday

View toward the Rincons at 5:50 am MST this morning.

Thunderstorms stayed mostly southeast to northwest of eastern Pima County yesterday, avoiding the metro area (as per plot of detected CG flashes through 0733 UTC today, above).

Precipitation reports from the ALERT Network for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am this morning (above and below) show rainfall reports mostly avoiding the metro area, with a couple of heavier reports near the Santa Rita Mountains. POPS for the metro area and airport were quite high yesterday, but they did not verify well. We had 0.02" at the house during the very early morning hours - August is continuing VERY dry here.

The 06 UTC forecast from the GFS (above, valid through 6:00 am tomorrow morning from Atmo) for rain amounts features a donut hole over much of the metro area. The morning NWS forecast for the weekend is shown below.

Showers Over Much Of Metro

View looking toward the Catalinas at 7:00 pm MST last evening, showing showers over east portion of City.

There was abundant CG activity over much of eastern half of Pima County yesterday - above shows detected flashes through 0803 UTC. We had lightning and rumbling thunder here around 7:00 to 7:30 pm, but no rain.

ALERT data for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am this morning (above and below) shows numerous reports, but with a large gap over main metro area, extending to the northwest.

The GFS 500 mb forecast valid at 12 UTC tomorrow (above) shows a large trough that will be impacting Arizona during the next couple of days.

The 12 UTC WRF-HRRR forecast for total rainfall through 6:00 am tomorrow (above) indicates scattered showers across much of central and eastern Pima County. Table below from NWS this morning shows their forecasts for coming week for sites in southeastern Arizona. The POPs remain high for Tucson through Saturday. I had to start watering yard plants yesterday, because of the long dry spell here.