Wednesday, August 27, 2025

Mostly Dry Yesterday


View of Rincons at 5:30 am MST this morning, with bright helicopter or airplane.


Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo - above) shows a large region with no activity stretching from metro Tucson northward. Following the light, pre-dawn shower yesterday, rest of day was fair and dry here.


Not many reports over northern portion of the ALERT network for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am (above), but more reports over southern part of the network (below), with a heavy amount just west of Green Valley.



The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF (above) indicate chances for light showers through the coming week - early morning showers did not materialize today. The GEFS POPs for the airport (below) indicate 30 to 60 percent chances most days. 



The 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast of rainfall through noon tomorrow (above) shows very dry conditions across much of Arizona. Current morning forecast for the airport from NWS (below) calls for slight chances today. 

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