View looking toward the Rincons at around 4:30 am MST this morning.
There is an article in the the morning paper that states the 2026 monsoon has arrived, right on time. However, this is based on the NWS definition of a "Monsoon Season" running from June 15th to September 30th. This definition ignores the actual meteorological conditions that might be prevailing.
Yesterday's 0.19" of rainfall presents an example of the problems of the seasonal definition.
The rainfall was associated with a weak shortwave that sneaked in from the Pacific - consider the 500 mb charts from the 06 UTC GFS forecasts.
The 500 mb chart for this morning (above) shows the weak disturbance over Arizona. The 7-day forecast (below) shows the typical monsoon high at 500 mb situated across central Baja, with a weak trough still across Arizona. The fourteen day forecast (bottom) indicates a large trough dominating the western US at 500 mb. There is no indication in the forecasts of the typical Four-Corners anticyclone that defines the summer monsoon circulation at 500 mb. So, if the forecasts are accurate, the start of the summer monsoon, from my perspective, remains several weeks away.
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