Tropical Storm Sonia Develops

Tropical Storm Sonia has developed over the eastern Pacific (the 18th named storm of the season). Current forecast for Sonia is shown above, from NHC. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for the west coast of Mexico at the southern end of the GoC. An IR image of Sonia is shown below from 5:30 am MST this morning.

Rain Showers!

Light rain showers moved through eastern Pima County around midnight last night. Covereage was considerably better than expected, and 60 ALERT sites (65% coverage) had rainfall during the 12 hours ending at 5 am MST this morning (Sunday, November 3rd). It was wonderful to smell rain and have some humidity this early morning. This was the first rainfall here at the house since September 9th. Regional radar from NCAR RAL (above) shows a band of showers moving across eastern Pima County at midnight.

Amounts, where the showers hit, were generally around 1/10th of an inch, although Mt. Lemmon reported 0.31". Plots from the ALERT network at 5 am for the west (above) and east (below) show that most of metro Tucson had showers.

Middle-Level Clouds During The Night

The 500 mb closed low west of Baja (top panel is NAM 500 mb analysis for 18 UTC) is forecast to open up, weaken, and move rapidly across Arizona tonight. As it does, there is a brief period of middle-level cloudiness during the night. The morning run of the WRF-NAM at Atmo forecasts some radar echoes across eastern Pima County around midnight (forecast of composite radar echoes valid at midnight is just above). These echoes are mostly aloft, since the forecast of accumulated precipitation through noon on Sunday (below) shows that little rain is forecast to reach the ground. The forecast skew-T for TUS, valid at 2 am MST, is shown at the bottom. The forecast indicates a saturated layer between 700 and 500 mb, but with the lower levels remaining extremely dry.

Early Morning Temps All Over The Place

Early this morning (Saturday, November 2nd) temperatures in the metro Tucson area have been all over the place. The time series from Atmo (above) shows that temperatures there have been bouncing up and down between 50 and 58F since 3 am MST. The MesoWest surface plot (below) for 6 am shows that strongest east winds stayed at higher elevations (although DM has had east-southeast winds of 15 to 20 mph). Temperatures ranged from 36F at Mescal (just east of Vail) to 65F at Sahuarita. Lows through 5 am were: here at house 37F, Sasabe 37F, Empire 40F, TUS 47F, Atmo 50F, and DM 55F. All of this illustrating how variable the temperatures can be across Tucson when the winds are sporadic and continue through the night at some spots but not others.

Updated WRF Forecast For Tonight

The morning forecast runs for the WRF variants were quite similar to the early runs discussed in post below. Shown above is the 12 UTC WRF-GFS forecast of winds valid at 5 am tomorrow morning, indicating strong east-southeast winds along the I-10 corridor. Below is the forecast of 2-m temperatures valid at the same time. This could be one of those situations when the low at the airport is very much warmer than that here at the house - depends upon when the winds break through into the Rillito wash.

Below is the current NWS hourly, grid point forecast valid at TUS from 3 pm this afternoon through 2 pm tomorrow afternoon. Note that the difference between Atmo's WRF model forecast for the airport versus NWS is almost 20F.

Last Cold Morning Of Week?

It was another cold morning across much of southeast Arizo, with lows at many spots near or below freezing for the second straight morning. Here at the house the low hit 30F this morning, making it the first low this Fall below freezing. Empire RAWS hit 29F yesterday and Sasabe RAWS had lows of 31F yesterday and today. What about tomorrow? - will address this below.

But first, looking south, there is another TD this morning - number 18 for the East Pacfic this season. Forecast from NHC is above, indicating it will become another tropical storm (Sonia). The 1230 UTC IR satellite image below shows cloud mass with the TD near 15N 110W, but with deep convection extending northward to near the mouth of the GoC. Moisture from the subtropics increases over the weekend, but model-forecasted rainfall just brushes the southeast corner of Arizona. More heavy rains possible for central Mexico and perhaps again into south Texas.

This morning a front is moving southward along the Front Range of New Mexico, as a 500 mb short wave crosses eastern Colorado and New Mexico. This front will back into southeastern Arizona tonight bringing strong, easterly, downslope winds with it. Below is early WRF-NAM, from Atmo, forecast of 10-meter winds valid at 2 am tomorrow morning (Saturday, November 2nd). The strong winds result in much warmer temperatures for tomorrow and Sunday mornings - lows 20 to 25F higher than past two days. So assuming that the WRF verifies, this is indeed the last cold morning of the current, short cold spell.

Cold Halloween Morning

Quite a biting cold along the Rillito this morning with frosty breath (need to add that cold here in Sonoran Desert is all relative compared to places like Fargo North Decoder). Had 32F on one thermometer here at house and 34F on other, so will record low as 33F. Was undoubtedly below freezing down along the wash. October 2013 ends as an unusually cool month here at the house. There were 12 mornings with low temperatures in the 30s - today being the coldest of the month. In comparison October 2012 had only two such mornings. As for rainfall there was absolutely none this year, while 2012 had 0.02".

Fatal Crash On I-10 In Dust

The desert along portions of I-10 between Tucson and Phoenix resembles scenes from Mad Max, due to nearly a century of over-grazing and commercial agriculture during recent decades. This corridor is prone to serious dust storms and multiple vehicle crashes. Yesterday afternoon blowing dust south of Casa Grande resulted in a pileup involving about 20 vehicles, many of them 16-wheelers (see above). There were three fatalities and many injuries, leaving I-10 westbound closed for more than five hours.

The 5 pm webcam view of the Catalinas, from the Computer Science Building, at 5 pm MST yesterday (above) appears to have captured some of the dust storm in the distance - at lower, left corner of the image. There were also thunderstorms with some lightning strikes along the Mogollon Rim (below) yesterday afternoon as the 500 mb short wave slowly moved eastward across the state.

Surface Observations At TUS Yesterday

Yesterday afternoon turned cloudy and very dreary, as thick cirrus streamed in from the west-southwest. There was a bit of dust in the air also, as the 5 pm MST view of the Catalinas (above) indicates. However, the surface observations from TUS (below) indicate that the day was characterized by clear (CLR) skies. The reason is that the automated "observing" system (ASOS) used by the NWS only detects clouds below 12,000 ft AGL. Thus, the discrepancy between actual sky conditions versus the ASOS "observed" sky conditions. At larger airports, as per Phoenix's Sky Harbor, the ASOS observations are augmented through the addition of human-observed cloud-cover information.

The visible satellite image (above, from 3:45 pm MST) shows the thick cirrus streaming east-northeastward from northern Baja. Strong flow over the mountain ridge-line of Baja induced an orographic enhancement of the cirrus and gave us our dreary afternoon. Direct solar radiation, as measured at Atmo (green curve below) indicates the impact of the cloudiness beginning after 10 am MST, with very low solar radiation values after 2 pm.

At times limited cloud information from the NWS can have impacts beyond the aviation weather system. For example, when air-quality modeling was done to estimate the impacts that the proposed Rosemont copper mine might have, the ASOS surface observations were used from TUS as a surrogate for solar radiation at the project site to the east. The observed sky cover at TUS was used internally within the model to deduce what the solar radiation might have been. Situations like yesterday were probably not handled well by the modeling approach used by consultants to the project. For those interested, more complete technical details are available at:   http://www.squidinkbooks.com/madweather/pdfs/Rosemont-DEIS-Comments-Air-Quality-RAM.pdf

Another Wind Event For Much of Arizona

The strong, 500 mb closed low over western Nevada is forecast by the latest NAM to move slowly east-northeastward and gradually weaken during the next 48-hours. As the system moves across the northern Great Basin today it will produce strong and gusty winds across most of the Southwest.

Here are several forecasts from the early, 06 UTC, WRF-NAM forecast runs at Atmo this morning. Above is forecast of 10-m winds, on the 5.4 km grid, valid at 8 am this morning (Monday, October 28th). Strongest winds at that time were forecast over far northwest Arizona and the southern great Basin. The system is fairly dry and the model forecast of total precipitation through midnight tomorrow night is shown below, again on the 5.4 km grid. Heaviest precipitation from this event forecast to be in western Nevada and the California Sierra Nevada range. Arizona picks up some precipitation, mostly on the Kaibab Plateau and along the Mogollan Rim country.

Here in southern Arizona winds are forecast (above is 10-m winds on the 1.8 km grid valid at 5 pm MST) to be strong during the afternoon today, but not nearly as strong as to the north. There will probably be some local blowing dust. The soil here along the Rillito is powder dry, as it has been most of the summer.

Hurricane Raymond - Back Again

Raymond has intensified again and is currently a Cat. 2 Hurricane. Visible image of Raymond above is from 2100 UTC this afternoon - Sunday, October 27th. Below is NHC forecast of the probabilities of tropical storm winds for the next 5-days. Although heading northward, Raymond weakens dramatically before reaching latitude 20 North.

Old Faithful

Was browsing Jack Hales Web cam page when I noticed Old Faithful, in Yellowstone NP, was about to do its thing. Photos here are 3-minutes apart. Not a big turnout this morning.

Precipitable Water Around The Globe

The PW site at CIMSS (Univ. of Wisconsin - Madison) has several global animations on line that are quite interesting to watch. Above shows the global distribution of PW at 12 UTC this morning - wettest areas are over Central America, the west Pacific, and the Indian Ocean. The loop can be viewed at:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/global2/main.html

Pacific Update

Tropical Storm Raymond is currently moving westward away from Mexico - above IR image is from 1430 UTC this morning. The forecast for Raymond is a bit uncertain at this time, although it is expected to turn northward early next week.

Storms Francisco and Super-Typhoon Lekima continue moving northward across the western Pacific (IR image above is from 0600 UTC this morning). By 26/1200 UTC they are forecast to be fairly close together, east of northern Japan. The GFS surface forecast valid at that time shows a complex surface low that is made up of extratopical remnants of Lekima and Francisco and another low from the Asian continent. This low eventually forms into two separate cyclones that move east-northeastward and push a low to their northeast northward across the Aleutians. Next week these two cyclones move across the Gulf of Alaska, with strong ridging to their east - thus, forcing the 500 mb low along the west coast to dig southward. A very complex setting and a tough challenge for the global models.

Interesting Situation Next Week

The presence of two typhoons over the Pacific (image above is IR from 06 UTC this morning) will complicate the predictability of the global models over the weekend and early next week. Lekima is a Cat 5, super-typhoon currently with winds over 150 mph. Both of these storms are forecast to become extra-tropical and head into the north Pacific, south of Alaska.

The GFS ensembles are fairly consistent out to 120-hours but then by 168-hours (grahic below shows 168-hour GFS ensemble average -left- and spaghetti plot of member solutions - right- all at 500 mb) there is very substantial spread among the forecasts. The uncertainty is centered over the eastern Pacific and western US. It will be interesting to watch how this all plays out. Some ensemble members even bring the remnants of Hurricane Raymond into play.

Seasonal Colors - Near The Proposed Rosemont Mine Site

Photos here all taken at Santa Rita Abbey during 2013. Top - April, middle above - August, and bottom above - October (this past Saturday). Below top - August, below middle - October, and bottom - October. The transitions into and out of the summer rainy season are really quite extreme, especially around 5,000 feet MSL, which is well out of the desert and also above the desert scrublands.

Congressional Reform

The following showed up in my email a couple of days ago. Such a reform would certainly solve the current mess, but is of course unlikely, since it would end most all of the reasons why politicians run for Congressional seats.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Warren Buffet, in a recent interview with CNBC, offers one of the best quotes about the debt ceiling:  "I could end the deficit in 5 minutes," he told CNBC. "You just pass a law that says that anytime there is a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for re-election.
  
The US Needs A Congressional Reform Act of 2013

1. No Tenure / No Pension.

Congressman/woman collects a salary while in office and receives no pay when they're out of office.

2. Congress (past, present & future) participates in Social Security.

All funds in the Congressional retirement fund move to the Social Security system immediately. All future funds flow into the Social Security system, and Congress participates with all of the American people. It may not be used for any other purpose.

3. Congress can purchase their own retirement plan, just as regular Americans do.

4. Congress will no longer vote themselves a pay raise. Congressional pay will rise by the lower of
CPI or 3%.

5. Congress loses their current health care system and participates in the same health care system as the American people.

6. Congress must equally abide by all laws they impose on the American people.

7. All contracts with past and present Congressmen/women are void effective 12/1/13. The American people did not make this contract with Congressmen/women. Congress made all these contracts for themselves. Serving in Congress is an honor, not a career.
The Founding Fathers envisioned citizen legislators, so ours should serve their term(s), then go home and back to work. 

Yet Another Tropical Storm In Pacific

Edited on Monday, October 21st to add: Raymond was upgraded to a hurricane last evening and, after intensifying rapidly during the night, is now classified as a Cat. 3 hurricane.

Tropical Storm Raymond developed off the coast of southern Mexico yesterday. The latest NHC forecast for Raymond is shown above. The storm is forecast to become a hurricane while drifting slowly north until midweek when it begins moving rapidly to the west-southwest. Below is a visible satellite image showing Raymond at 2045 UTC this afternoon (Sunday, October 20th). Note the eye structure present, indicating that Raymond may already be a hurricane.

Bit More On Outlooks From NWS CPC

I looked a bit more at CPC's web page this morning to find information about how these outlooks are made. There is a discussion of the forecast tools used (7 of them, including a 40-member ensemble forecast model) at:       http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools.html

However, I didn't find anything about how the outputs from these tools are distilled into the final outlook products. Perhaps I just didn't look in the right spots? The following is from the discussion of the skill of these forecasts at the link above (which is similar to what I wrote yesterday):

FOR ALL MODELS PRECIPITATION FORECASTS ARE GENERALLY LESS SKILLFUL THAN 
TEMPERATURE -- WITH MARGINAL SKILL FOR ALL TOOLS EVEN IN THEIR BEST SEASONS AND 
LOCATIONS UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES.  HOWEVER WHEN STRONG EL NINO OR LA NINA 
CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT - PRECIPITATION SKILL CAN BE AS HIGH AS TEMPERATURE SKILL 
FOR COOL SEASON FORECASTS FOR A NUMBER OF AREAS OF THE U.S. - INCLUDING THE 
SOUTHERN THIRD - THE NORTHERN ROCKIES - THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE OHIO VALLEY.  
STRONG LA NINA CONDITIONS IMPLY THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION SKILL 
FOR SOME PARTS OF THE WARM SEASON AS WELL. 

I've shown two more outlooks here that illustrate another head scratcher. At the top is the current 8-14 day temperature outlook valid through October 31st. Below is the current outlook for November temperature. To me these indicate almost a binary transition to a different pattern at the end of October, since I don't see any evidence of a transition between the two maps.