Thursday, October 24, 2013

Pacific Update


Tropical Storm Raymond is currently moving westward away from Mexico - above IR image is from 1430 UTC this morning. The forecast for Raymond is a bit uncertain at this time, although it is expected to turn northward early next week.


Storms Francisco and Super-Typhoon Lekima continue moving northward across the western Pacific (IR image above is from 0600 UTC this morning). By 26/1200 UTC they are forecast to be fairly close together, east of northern Japan. The GFS surface forecast valid at that time shows a complex surface low that is made up of extratopical remnants of Lekima and Francisco and another low from the Asian continent. This low eventually forms into two separate cyclones that move east-northeastward and push a low to their northeast northward across the Aleutians. Next week these two cyclones move across the Gulf of Alaska, with strong ridging to their east - thus, forcing the 500 mb low along the west coast to dig southward. A very complex setting and a tough challenge for the global models.


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