No question today about whether storms will occur in the lower deserts - nice area of echoes currently northwest of Tucson - see vis image above. These are drifting a bit toward the south and southwest, reflecting the very chopped up pattern and its light winds in lower and mid-levels.
Moisture remains high in the lower half of troposphere and morning convection and heavy cloud is affecting much of Arizona, Utah and southern California. A weak middle-level trough will be moving slowly across Arizona today and tomorrow, and there appears to be nicely difluent flow at high levels with this feature. There also appears to be an inverted trough at 700 mb brushing westward along the Arizona borderlands. So, an active weekend on tap. Storms, given the small to moderate amounts of CAPE and light steering winds, will have potential to produce local heavy rains and perhaps wet microbursts.
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