The 500 mb cutoff west of Baja has become much better defined over last few days, as vorticity tails from the last couple of short waves curled into the system. The water vapor image from 1430 UTC this morning (top) shows the system with what appears to be considerable deep convection in advance of it. The blended PW product for 1300 UTC (middle) indicates a substantial flow of mT air into the system from low latitudes. However, the various numerical models have seemed dry with this system, leaving me to wonder if a more substantial system will move across Arizona than is currently forecast in the 24 to 48 hour time frame. Bottom image shows NAM forecast of 48-hour total precipitation ending at 1200 UTC on Thursday morning - this model forecast keeps all precipitation at higher elevations to our far north. The Atmo run of the WRF-GFS from midnight data appears to have terminated after only a few hours, so the NAM and ATMO WRF can not be compared right now.
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