Thursday, May 26, 2011

Interesting Long-Range Progs - Summer On Horizon?


Shown above are the operational GFS and ECMWF 500 mb forecasts for 168 hours from 12 UTC this morning (Thursday May 26th). Both models forecast a deep trough off the west coast and build a strong anticyclone over the East and Southwest. The models also retrogress this pattern westward during the last few days of the forecast period. Certainly a summer-like pattern, with 500 mb heights forecast to be above 5880 m over much of the country. Below are the models' forecasts at 240 hours (I rarely look this far out, but...). The ECMWF continues to retrogress the pattern westward; whereas the GFS forecasts the trough to move onshore over the western US. Both models hint that some meager moisture may advect northward from Mexico into the Southwest - so there may be a threat of high-based, mostly dry, thunderstorms as June begins. This would pose a serious threat for more wildfires, given the tinder-box dry conditions over much of New Mexico and southeastern Arizona.


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