The southern end of the 500 mb trough that's over the West will move eastward across southern Arizona today, as has been well-forecast by the models last several days. This morning's (Tuesday May 10th) NAM 500 mb forecast for 5 pm this afternoon is shown in the top image. At 5 pm the model forecasts a strong vorticity maximum to be nearly over Tucson. PW is about a cm, which is up some from earlier in the week but certainly quite limited. The midnight run of the Atmo WRF-GFS, high-resolution model (bottom image above) indicates weak, high-based convection moving across the Tucson area around 3 pm this afternoon. The image shows model-predicted, composite, radar reflectivity at 3 pm. The view from the Kitt Peak webcam, looking north, is shown below - it is picking up a bit of a cu field out to the west. So, we will watch what transpires this afternoon. Would be nice to be rid of the dust and pollen for a couple of days.
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