A fast-moving, short wave at 500 mb will move eastward across northern Arizona tonight (Saturday, 21 January 2012). The vorticity maximum with this wave was near San Francisco this morning, with widespread midde and high cloudiness spilling to the east and southeast far ahead of it. The heavy clouds cover all of Arizona at 8 am MST this morning, except for the far southeast (see visible satellite image below)..
The blended PW image below (at 5 am MST) shows a distinct plume of subtropical moisture extending from west of Hawaii into central and southern California, where rains and mountain snows are widespread.
The morning forecast of the NAM model predicts limited precipitation by 5 am MST tomorrow morning across far northern Arizona (see above). The midnight run of Atmo's WRF-GFS (below) forecasts a bit heavier precipitation across the Rim Country for the same period. Regardless, looks like we'll mainly be watching clouds zip by down here in southern Arizona, although there may be some sprinkles, and mammatus during the late afternoon. Next Pacific short-wave comes in late Monday and may dig further south than current one - so something to keep an eye on.
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