The 168-hour forecasts from the 00 UTC operational runs of the GFS and the ECMWF once again have significant differences in their 500 mb forecasts, valid at 5 pm MST on February 1st. The GFS (above) has a flat ridge over much of the western U.S. The ECMWF (below) forecasts a closed low digging south along the California coast - the first hint of a possible weather-maker in the Southwest for a number of model runs. Height differences along the southern California coast are nearly 200 m. So, something to keep an eye on as January draws to a close.
Edited to add: The digging short wave in last evening's ECMWF vanished as quickly as it appeared. The 168-hour forecast from 12 UTC this morning is shown below, with no trace of that California closed low. Perhaps it will return in the evening run?
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