As mentioned yesterday, a winter storm is developing for the Colorado Front Range and the High Plains of west Kansas and Nebraska. The NAM forecast from this morning's run (for 850 winds and PW) is shown above - valid at 12 UTC tomorrow morning (Friday, February 3, 2012). The 850 low over southwestern Kansas has pulled high PW air northward all the way into southern Nebraska. The 36-h NAM forecast valid at 6 pm CST tomorrow for total precipitation is shown below. The model forecasts over an inch of precipitation for much of eastern Colorado - where it will come as snow. Forecast amounts are highest near Kansas City where the model forecasts over 2 inches of rain - however, the precipitation and temperature gradients are very sharp along the southern borders of Iowa and Nebraska making for a tough forecast situation there.
The graphic above (from the Denver/Boulder NWS Office) shows that a blizzard warning is in effect for northeastern Colorado, and that a winter storm warning has been issued for the Colorado Front Range region. The Denver International Airport (DIA) lies just west of the blizzard forecast area. The current ~1 km NWS grid point forecast at DIA is for a 90% chance of snow tonight and tomorrow; accumulations of 9 to 17 inches; and north winds with gusts as high as 33 mph. I guess the 90% probability is a CYA conditional forecast that says there could be a 10% chance that the storm will miss DIA (this NWS probability < 100% with accumulations is a pet peeve of mine!). As for the travellers likely stranded at DIA tomorrow afternoon and night - they probably won't care whether it was a winter storm or a blizzard that waylaid them.
Finally, the SPC anticipates some wintertime severe understorms as early as late this afternoon and evening. The above is today's convective outlook.
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