Reality Check On Previous Post

The previous post compared GFS and ECMWF 168-hour forecasts that were valid at 5 pm this afternoon - February 1st. The models have been all over the place since then, but have recently trended back toward the long-range ECMWF. Below are the long range GFS (top), the long-range ECMWF (bottom), and the 12-hour NAM valid at 5 pm today (middle).

My subjective assessment is that the ECMWF was clearly the better forecast - especially wrt 500 mb heights and vorticity fields across the western US (compare the heights at 558 m for example). The ECMWF captured the strong ridging along the Pacific Coast quite well. The GFS did forecast the pattern over the central US better than did the ECMWF.

It appears that we get some winds and cooling here in southeast Arizona, as this system continues to dig and swings by to the northeast. However, the system threatens to bring blizzard conditions to the High Plains tomorrow afternoon and Friday, as it develops a particularly good inflow of very moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. The big question as far as impacts on people, transportation, and economics is: How much snow will fly between Colorado Springs and Ft. Collins?