Thursday, February 07, 2013

A Look At WRF-GFS For Friday And Saturday

This morning the 500 mb analysis for 12 UTC indicates that the next system to impact the Southwest is currently off the coast of British Columbia. The temperatures in the core of this system are currently around -35C, fitting with the forecast for a serious cool down on the weekend. Most weather attention remains centered on finding Nemo. However, there will be interesting weather out in this part of the country also.


I have just taken a quick look at the forecasts from the early run of Atmo's WRF-GFS model. The forecast surface plot (above) for 4 pm MST on Friday afternoon, indicates warm temperatures but with strong and gusty south-southwest winds. The front moves through quickly during the night and by 9 am on Saturday morning the forecast radar echoes (below) indicate a post-frontal band of showers moving across eastern Pima County - this is the first of several bands forecast during the day Saturday.



The surface conditions forecast at 10 am on Saturday (above) indicate damp and much cooler temperatures - note that there are some temperatures down in the 30s on the north and east sides of the metro area. The forecast of total precipitation through midnight on Saturday night is shown below. This event is currently forecast to be a light precipitation situation, except over the higher elevations of the Catalinas and Rincons..



2 comments:

  1. Anonymous7:41 AM

    Bob,

    Check out the nation's precipitation at the link below...pattern has not changed much since last summwer. Most of the nation is still below normal precipitation.

    Diane is hunkering down in Boston right now.

    Pat

    http://water.weather.gov/precip/index.php?yday=1321142400&yday_analysis=0&layer%5B%5D=0&layer%5B%5D=1&layer%5B%5D=4&timetype=RECENT&loctype=STATE&units=engl&timeframe=current&product=observed&loc=stateID

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous7:55 AM

    oh, and by the way, this wx channel naming for winter storms is stupid...

    Pat

    ReplyDelete