Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Update Tuesday Afternoon

The above graphic shows the WRF-GFS forecast of total precipitation through midnight tomorrow from the run initialized at 12 UTC this morning. It is similar to the two forecasts shown in previous post, with slightly more precipitation at lower elevations across Pima County.

I noticed an interesting situation while looking at the forecast soundings for TUS tomorrow. The above sounding is valid at 10 am MST tomorrow from the WRF-GFS and the same sounding from the WRF-NAM is below. Both soundings indicate a very shallow layer near the surface with above freezing temperatures, and a deep, saturated layer above that is below freezing. If these forecast vertical profiles actually verify, then a heavy burst of snowfall will move across the metro area at mid-morning tomorrow. A very interesting possibility that I will check on early tomorrow morning!

Other interesting aspects of the soundings: all the precipitation develops below about 600 mb, with dry air above; winds in the surface to 600 mb layer are forecast to be very strong, so that areas with snow will also have nasty winds and blowing snow. Doubt there'll be much golf at Dove Mountain tomorrow.

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