Sunday, April 07, 2013

A Look At Atmo's WRF Forecasts For Tomorrow

The digging short-wave at 500 mb is currently (3pm MST Sunday April 7th) near the Oregon coast. I have taken a look at the WRF forecasts from 5 am MST data this morning. The WRF forecasts very strong surface winds tomorrow afternoon, and above graphic is the 10 m wind forecast from the WRF-GFS valid at 2 pm. Sustained winds above 30 mph are forecast across most of Pima County and a Pacific cold front is positioned just east of Yuma at that time. The model forecasts a large area of sustained winds above 40 mph to the north, across the Rim country and the Little Colorado Basin.

The model manages to produce a band of high-based, light showers across eastern Pima County by 9 pm MST - see WRF-GFS radar forecast below. This system looks to be yet another moisture-starved event that will produce mostly wind, dust, virga, and a few sprinkles.

The WRF-GFS forecast for accumulated precipitation through 5 am MST on Tuesday morning is shown above, while the same forecast from the WRF-NAM is shown below. Neither version of the model produces much rain at the ground across southeastern Arizona. However, a trailing, short-wave trough will be crossing southern Arizona on Tuesday, so there will be second chance for some shower activity. High profile vehicle travel across much of the state tomorrow will be a rocky experience. The high winds will be trying to re-locate the Guthrie RAWS station into New Mexico

1 comment:

  1. Anonymous3:16 PM

    Bob, Just to let you know, the recent wrf runs were made with a test configuration, by mistake. The winds are too high in that run. I've fixed the problem for future runs.