Thursday, September 12, 2013

Heavy Rains New Mexico And Colorado

Was tied up this morning taking a look at the setting that has produced 8 to 10+ inches of rain near Boulder. Had some similarities to the Big Thompson flood event of July 31st 1976. However, this event has been longer-lived and more tropical (warm rain processes) in character. Above is web cam shot of Boulder Creek running out of its banks at 2:30 pm MST this afternoon. I guess that the models were not very far off yesterday - I should have taken a closer look at the larger-scale setting before downplaying yesterday's WRF-GFS.

Locally, the forecast models continue to keep the west edge of the convection across Cochise County, just to our east. Below is this morning's WRF-NAM forecast of radar echoes at 10 pm MST this evening.

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