Thursday, February 20, 2014

Moderate Risk Of Severe Thunderstorms Late Today


For the first time in what I think is many weeks the SPC has issued an outlook for a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms occurring late this afternoon and evening (20 February) - see above.


As a strong 500 mb short wave (above is this morning's NAM forecast valid at 8 pm MST this evening) approaches the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Basin, strong winds at 850 (same forecast from NAM below) have transported GoM low-level moisture far north into the region where arctic weather has prevailed recently. In fact, at sunrise today the most unstable air was actually aloft over cold surface air and melting snow cover. Seems a sure sign that there will eventually be a Spring this year for those who have been besieged most of the Winter.


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