Friday, January 15, 2016

Rare January Hurricane and Look At Global Models Our Area

A rare January hurricane, Alex, developed in the North Atlantic during the past week or so. This storm moved into low latitudes and gradually acquired tropical characteristics. It moved across the Azores this morning and is rapidly transitioning to an extra-tropical storm again. Current early am position is shown above and forecast track, from NHC, below. Although the storm loses it tropical character, it is forecast to continue producing hurricane winds, thus the "H" in the track circles. 

Here in the Southwest, benign weather continues with cool mornings and warm afternoons. A weak system passes by today, bringing some cloudiness with it and a change from the past four days which have been mostly clear.

In the longer term, there is yet another substantial difference between the operational versions of the GFS and the ECMWF, run at 00 UTC last evening. The two 500 mb forecasts shown here are both valid at 5:00 pm MST on Wednesday the 20th. Heights in the ECMWF forecast (below) are about 150 m lower than those forecast in the GFS (above). There is a fast-moving, sharp trough in the one forecast and a minor blip in the other - we'll watch to see which model prevails in this situation.

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