Saturday, February 20, 2016

Cool Season Graphs

Several graphs here from Mike Crimmins' web page related to cool season and March precipitation for three El Nino cool seasons. Plots are for the airport and obviously for a minuscule sample size. This current cool season is shown above and below. The selected similar years to date seem a bit ominous, since all all are very dry after February.

In contrast here are the two most notable El Nino cool seasons (one being very strong as per this year) that I could find with wet periods in March. Both are for the airport; above is 1972-1973 and below is 1997-1998. The 1997-1998 cool season was accompanied by a strong El Nino and we'll have to see if this March plays out similarly (interestingly there has been a huge difference between the February's of 1997-1998 vs 2015-2016). It would be remarkable if this cool season turned out anywhere nearly as wet as was 1997-1998.

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