Saturday, February 06, 2016

Milder Temperatures This Morning

Easterly winds this early morning (which models have been forecasting for several days) have led to much milder temperatures across most of the metro area.

Above is the forecast from the 12 UTC WRF-NAM model run yesterday - valid time of the forecast was 6:00 am MST this morning. Second below is same forecast but with wind gusts shown.

For some unknown reason there were some gremlins in the morning WRF runs yesterday, with small bubbles of very cold (below zero) air here and there during the night. Aside from these, the forecasts appear quite reasonable. The observations show a range of about 20 F from the northeast side of town out to Marana in the northwest. This reflects the very large range in wind gusts this morning, with very light winds many areas, and strong gusts along I-10 and especially downwind from the Redington Pass gap between the high mountains. It seems calm here and quite cold in the pre-dawn hours, and I'll add our low later.

Added at 8:30 am - low temperature here this morning was 26 F vs 43 F at the airport (TUS). Lows here Tuesday the second through this morning: 27, 19, 20, 25, and 26 F.

The time-series of temperature from Atmo at the bottom illustrates the considerable warming from yesterday morning to this morning.

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