Wednesday, November 02, 2016

Bit Of Weather To Start November

October was very warm and dry here in Tucson area and was warmest October since record keeping began. Here at house there were thunderstorms on three days and measurable rainfall on two - 0.12" on the 2nd and 0.04" on the 24th. 

As for the earlier posts on NWS changes, I'll try to get my two-cents up later today.

As a 500 mb, closed low develops over northern Sonora today, temperatures aloft are quite cool and it feels like fall out this morning (low here of 48 F). The 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast for 500 mb winds and temperatures above is valid at midnight tonight. At the same time, a backdoor front is pushing westward from New Mexico, with gusty east winds. The WRF-GFS forecast of 10-m winds below is valid at 5:00 am MST tomorrow morning.

The WRF-GFS forecast skewT for Sonoita (above - valid at 5:00 am tomorrow morning) is interesting, since it keeps the strongest easterlies confined to a shallow layer (similar to last event I followed). However, the southeasterlies above are very strong through a deep layer, so I will watch the Mt. Hopkins observations tomorrow. There is also a nice layer with CAPE and there may be showers over there on the grasslands.

Both WRF model forecasts from 06 UTC indicate a very significant precipitation event for the eastern Arizona mountains as the 500 mb cyclone eventually pulls out to the northeast. Forecast below is from WRF-GFS and is valid through 11:00 am on November 5th. Models and NWS grid forecasts indicate that this will be a rain event; however, the forecast soundings for Mt. Graham seem to indicate potential for wet-bulbing and some snow (or graupel) accumulations at very highest elevations - something else to watch.

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