Thursday, November 17, 2016

Update Re Next Monday

The GEFS plumes for Monday's precip event from 06 UTC last night are shown above - the operational model has dried some but is still a bit wetter than the ensemble average. It is the operational version of the GFS that drives Atmo's WRF-GFS model.

The 00 UTC run of the WRF-GFS (on 5.4 km grid) forecasts the PW plume to shift a bit westward relative to yesterday - above forecast valid at 8:00 am MST next Monday morning the 21st of November.

These two panels show forecasts of accumulated precipitation from the model for 5:00 am on the 22nd. Above is on the 5.4 km grid and below is on the 1.8 km grid. The model has shifted the heaviest precipitation westward and northward relative to yesterday's forecasts. Will have to just watch over next few few days to see how the model trends with this system.

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