Thursday, November 24, 2016

Thanksgiving Holiday 2016

Hope all who visit here have a great Thanksgiving Holiday, and avoid the crushing mess of Black Friday shopping - which I guess now starts today at many mercenary venues.

Will be very low-key day here, since I had surgery for a hernia yesterday and am dealing with some aches and pains this morning.

Today has dawned with high clouds producing a bit of a dreary morning - above.

Took a look at 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecasts of outgoing longwave radiation. Forecast above is valid at 8:00 am MST, while below is for noon. The model forecasts rapid clearing and sunny skies for the afternoon as the high clouds zip rapidly to the northeast.

Also took a look at the model's forecast for skew-Ts at Sonoita, since I'm following the local winds at the Mt. Hopkins RAWS station. Sounding above is valid at 7:00 pm this evening, and the layer of easterlies is deep enough and strong enough to perhaps support gusts of 30 to 40 mph, or bit stronger. Not a clear cut situation, as easterlies reach just barely to top of Santa Rita Sky Island. By 4:00 am tomorrow the model forecasts a much more shallow layer of east winds, so if strong winds develop, they won't be long-lived.

The longer-term outlook for next week and start of December remains much cooler and unsettled.

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