Friday, January 13, 2017

Wide Variety Of Weather This Holiday Weekend

The GEFS plumes for QPF at TUS (above, from 06 UTC last night) have become very clustered in time with precipitation from tomorrow afternoon (Saturday) into Sunday, with bulk of rainfall on Saturday night. The amounts however, continue to have a large spread ranging from around a third of an inch to almost two inches - so the details continue to be very important in determining what actually occurs.

The 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast from Atmo forecasts a period of strong southeasterly winds tomorrow afternoon - forecast below is valid Saturday at noon. So it appears there'll be wind, rain, a slight possibility of thunder, and winter conditions in the Sky Islands - quite a mix. 

The model's forecasts of upper-air soundings, shown on these skewT plots, illustrate the variety of conditions for the next 60-hours or so. The sounding above is for the airport and is valid at 01:00 pm tomorrow afternoon. It could support light showers, perhaps a rumble of thunder, and strong, gusty winds.

The sounding below is for Sonoita and is valid at 02:00 am on the 15th. This sounding could bring snow showers, along with gusty winds to that region or nearby places that are just a bit higher in elevation.

At the bottom is the forecast sounding for Mt. Graham valid tomorrow at 04:00 pm. This sounding could support a brief period of thundersnow, as well as very strong winds of 40 to 60 mph. The forecast soundings at Mt. Graham indicate two distinct periods of snow as this event unfolds. The WRF-GFS forecasts Sky Island snow amounts of 10 to 12 inches and more, and even brings 3 to 5 inches of snow to Kitt Peak. 

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