Friday, April 27, 2018

Quick Look At Today's Situation

First a look at some observations this morning. The 500 mb analysis (above from SPC) is for 12 UTC this morning. Although a high-amplitude ridge dominates western North America, there is slight troughiness moving through the ridge along the Borderlands. Of interest is the sounding data from Guaymus - let's hope that station stays in operation through the summer.

The IR satellite image below is from 6:30 am MST standard time and there appears to be middle and upper-level moisture and cloudiness to our east that extends northwestward across parts of Arizona - the El Paso morning sounding is quite moist above 600 mb.

The 12 UTC sounding for TWC (above, also from SPC) indicates no CAPE this morning and only 16 mm of PW - there is actually almost no gradient in PW from here to El Paso. The observed winds and moisture distribution indicate that most mid-level cloudiness will remain to our east today.

The skewT below is from the 06UTC WRF-GFS and is the forecast for 5:00 pm this afternoon - the mixed layer CAPE remains zero and there is perhaps enough moisture around 500 mb for some clouds. The operations GFS continues extremely dry (see blue trace in TUS plumes below).

The 06 UTC plumes for QPF from the GEFS shown here are for TUS (above) and Deming, New Mexico (below). The GEFS forecasts much better chances for showers and high-based thunderstorms to our east, while the Tucson forecast is quite dismal. The forecast from the WRF for QPF through 5:00 pm tomorrow (second below) is also quite dismal, keeping light showers along the state border and eastward into New Mexico.

Continues to appear that we may observe some high-based Cbs over the mountains off to our east late afternoon and evening, but little chance for anything in the Metro area.

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