Sunday, November 17, 2019

Little Change In Forecasts For Coming Week

Morning view of San Francisco Peaks - not a hint of white yet. At bottom is Aberdeen Beach, Scotland, a bit before 5:00 pm local time. Photos grabbed from Jack Hales webcam wall.

This morning's 12 UTC 500 mb chart (above from NCAR RAP) continues with little change from yesterday. Forecasts still eject the Baja closed low northeastward across Arizona. Current outlook from NWS Tucson below.

Although Raymond is no longer a tropical storm, there is large MCS associated with his remnants, and a large mass of cloudiness extending north almost to Arizona border (IR image above is for 15 UTC this morning).

Forecast of composite radar echoes (above from 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast this morning) is valid at 6:00 pm on Tuesday the 19th - very strong to severe thunderstorms forecast for our area. Forecast sounding for TWC (valid at same time) below is very moist with significant CAPE and strong winds above 700 mb.

Second graphic below is for 00 UTC WRF-GFS forecast of total precipitation through 6:00 pm on the 21st (Thursday). The model forecasts a VERY significant event now for most of state. Model amounts much higher than official NWS forecast amounts shown above.

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