Thursday, November 14, 2019

Another Mild And Sunny Day Here

Pre-dawn view at Cabo San Lucas, southern Baja, this morning.

Forecast models are beginning to indicate hopes for precipitation by middle of next week. Above is 500 mb forecast from ECMWF run at 00 UTC last evening - valid at 00 UTC on the 21st. Below are four panels from the GEFS for 00 UTC same day next week. Forecasts are for precipitation and indicate rainfall affecting parts of our region - finally.

There is also a developing tropical disturbance to our south. Graphic above is TPW at 12 UTC this morning. Bottom two panels are from NHC this morning and indicate the developing disturbance should move slowly northward. The moisture with this feature may eventually interact with the trough shown in the ECMWF forecast to enhance chances for precipitation. However, all this is a week in the future, but it is a glimmer of hope for a return of some weather.

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