Monday, November 04, 2019

Chance Of Rain Wednesday?


Above is sunrise view from Atmo and at bottom is same view last evening, a bit before sunset.


The infrared image above is from 12 UTC this morning - it's very clear over Arizona this morning. Darker shades indicate warmer surface temperatures, as per down in the Grand Canyon or over northern GoC (black spot southern Colorado is a data problem).

Below is a water vapor image from 1130 UTC this morning. The trough west of Baja is very dry (orange shades) in the upper-troposphere, but there is some hope it will pull a bit of low-level moisture northward as it moves across our area late tomorrow and Wednesday.

 The trough west of Baja


Seven day time-series of PW from Atmo (above) shows gradual increase since Halloween, but values are still only around half an inch. However, last evening's 00 UTC GEFS plumes for PW (below) indicate values up around 0.75" on Wednesday, while last night's WRF forecasts take PW up to just over an inch. 

Most models forecast chances for light showers, as well as some thunderstorms, by Wednesday. Will take a closer look tomorrow.



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