Some color looking toward the Rincons at 6:00 am MST this morning.
There were some storms scattered around eastern Pima County yesterday - above shows detected CG flashes through 0733 UTC (0033 am) today. We had rumbles of thunder here but no rain. The ALERT plot for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am (below) shows a few sites had rain over the Catalinas and off to the south.
The GFS forecast 500 mb chart valid at 18 UTC today (above) shows a large anticyclone, with its main center over northeast Mexico near the Rio Grande.
The current morning forecast for the airport (above) indicates 40 to 30 percent chances for precipitation through Friday night. The morning forecasts from the WRF runs at Atmo are interesting. The 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast through 6:00 am tomorrow morning (below) shows heavy precipitation across all of eastern Pima County. However, the 12 UTC run of the WRF-HRRR through 6:00 am tomorrow (second below) forecasts a classic Tucson donut hole. So, take your pick!
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