Perfectly clear skies this morning, with view toward the Rincons at 6:00 am MST. The plot of detected CG flashes (below from Atmo - through 0803 UTC this early morning) shows that storms yesterday mostly avoided Pima County. There were 2 sites in the Catalinas that reported 0.04" and 0.08" of rain yesterday.
The GEFS 06 UTC plumes for QPF at the airport (above) indicate considerable rainfall into Saturday morning. The POPs for the airport from same runs (below) show very high probabilities tonight and tomorrow morning.
Current forecast from the NWS for the airport (above) shows high POPs tonight and Friday, along with a Flash Flood watch through Saturday. Strong and gusty winds are also mentioned by the NWS - quite a change from the sunny morning that we're having now. The 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast from Atmo (below for period through 6:00 am Saturday morning) shows heavy precipitation over eastern Pima County, as well as to our north, east, and south. Big changes on tap, assuming these various forecasts pan out!
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