The determination of the impacts of hurricane Ileana have proved difficult to quantify, given the moist precursor conditions, as discussed yesterday. The Creighton GSI has been indicating weak surge conditions at Yuma for more than 24 hours - the values did go above 25 beginning last evening. Yuma is currently surging quite strongly with dewpoints into the 70s and SSE winds over 20 kts.
The satellite precipitable water this morning seems to indicate a distinct plume of high precipitable water extending from Ileana and lower Gulf of California all the way north into the lower Colorado River Basin - see graphic by clicking below.
CLICK HERE
Note that the storms that developed in south central Arizona a bit before sunrise appeared to develop at the nose of the higher precipitable water plume.
The high dewpoint air is now just south of Las Vegas and it is not clear whether or not the plume will impact storm probabilities in southern Nevada - the midshift forecasters there expressed concerns about the possible surge in their early am forecast discussion.
Finally, the next couple of days appear fairly complex as the S/W in the northwest does battle with a strong subtropical circulation and several tropical systems.
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