Sunday, August 13, 2006

The severe storms of Tuesday August 8th

I have been very busy the last week or so and have not gotten much posted.

Some of the most severe storms to strike the Tucson metro area occurred during the late afternoon of Tuesday August 8th. The synoptic setting was not one that seemed supportive of such intense storms. These storms displayed a distinct linear organization for about two hours as they moved across the southern half of the city. Some details and a photo are at this newspaper url:

Later this summer or Fall I will analyze the most severe events of the summer and contrast them with a newspaper description of what meteorological conditions bring Tucson the most severe storms during the summer.

Finally, the almost total lack of sounding data from much of Mexico since early July continues to frustrate attempts to analyze the larger-scale conditions over southwestern North America - the negative impacts on the models have been especially significant.

1 comment:

  1. Mike Leuthold11:59 AM

    The NAM has had terrible initializations for most of the last week with a semi permanent strong inverted trough in various random parts of northern Mexico. The result of this is that mid level forcast winds have been much stronger (up to 30kts) that what has actually happened, and these winds then caused storms in the model to organize and propagate into the lower elevations, which hasn't happened. The NWS had bit at these poor forecasts more than once with high pops for low elevations and even a mention by SPC sometime last week as the forecast shear was high.

    This is a link to a model sounding over Mt Lemmon made from the 12z NAM from the previous day (6 Aug).

    This is the actual sounding.

    Perhaps the NWS should put some effort and money into supporting northern Mexico soundings during the summer. The above cases show how poor the models perform when there are no soundings from there. It would be money well spent.