Features of interest this morning - Friday October 1st 2010:--------------------------------------
Top image shows GOES precipitable water at 13Z this morning - strong moisture gradient from west-to-east, with driest air in southeast Arizona and New Mexico.
Top image shows GOES precipitable water at 13Z this morning - strong moisture gradient from west-to-east, with driest air in southeast Arizona and New Mexico.
---------------------------------------
The cutoff low at 500 mb is beginning to pull northward into California; however southern portions remain off California and will be absorbed into the digging short-wave tomorrow and Sunday. This shifts some of the lower-level moisture eastward across Arizona.
---------------------------------------
The Univ. of Arizona WRF model forecasts (from the run at 06Z this morning) some light sprinkles near Tucson tomorrow afternoon, and then develops thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon - middle graphic is WRF model composite radar at 3 pm on Sunday afternoon. This morning's NAM is more aggressive, forecasting some precip in southeastern Arizona each of the next three afternoons, but also with Sunday being the most active day. The bottom graphic shows this morning's NAM forecast for 12-hour rainfall ending at midnight Sunday.
--------------------------------------
The NAM continues to indicate a backdoor front from the Plains pushing into southeast Arizona on Sunday morning - this would be a complicating factor, given the dry air to the east of the Continental Divide. The WRF forecast stalls that front out, over in New Mexico.
--------------------------------------
All models now forecast a somewhat stagnant 500 mb cutoff low over the Southwest during the first part of next week - which means an end to the blistering heat - record high of 104F at the airport yesterday. This cooling will be much welcomed, regardless of whether any rain materializes!
No comments:
Post a Comment