Looks like large-scale features are coming together for an interesting, and hopefully, wet afternoon and evening. The Tucson morning sounding is moist (see top image - PWs are 1 to 1/4" across southern Arizona), but with only a silver of CAPE. However, the NAM forecasts good southerly flow from Sonora by afternoon and 500 mb temperatures are very cool at -12 to -15C. The middle image shows the RAP analysis at 250 mb for 12 UTC this morning, indicating very pronounced difluence aloft. So, large-scale ingrediants are quite favorable for vertical motion and an active day, extending into the night. The NAM forecast for rainfall amounts for 12-hours ending at midnight tonight indicates a broad band of rains of 1/4" to more than 1" extending from southeast to northwest Arizona. Nice start to the week as the large Pacific cutoff at 500 mb develops along the Californina coast!
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