A 500 mb, cut-off low west of Baja has pulled moisture back into southern Arizona during past 24-hours, leading to high-based, afternoon showers and thundershowers. The top graphic is a visible satellite image for 3:45 pm this afternoon (Thursday Oct. 14, 2010) and the middle graphic is the Tucson composite radar image for about the same time. Most activity north of the border was from southwest of Tucson extending west toward southern California. This morning's run of the WRF-NAM model at Atmo predicted this scenario quite well - this run also predicts a considerable increase in shower and storm activity tomorrow afternoon. The bottom graphic shows an IR satellite image for 5 pm this evening that indicates considerably more, and stronger, storm activity to the south of the border over Sonora. During the next few days the Baja cut-off at 500 mb will pull eastward as a stronger short-wave digs south from the Pacific and cuts off over Arizona. Thus, unsettled conditions will prevail for the next seven days or so.
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