This morning at 7 am there were a few spits of rain here at the house and some snow showers up on the Catalinas - these were gone by 8 am as top image indicates. The morning low at house on the last day of the month was far and away the mildest of the month, coming in at 44F.
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The morning 500 mb analysis from NCAR RAP (second image) shows that the leading 500 short wave is well into Arizona and Utah this morning, with some middle-level moisture ahead of and with this feature. A very cold 500 mb cutoff is over west-central Canada.
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The 1200 UTC NAM forecast this morning (bottom two panels) indicates that by 5 pm this afternoon the 500 short wave will have moved to northern Mexico and stretch northward across New Mexico. The forecast also indicates a piece of the Candian low breaking off and moving south into the western US. The model produces only some light showers today across southeastern Arizona, with quite light QPF amounts at 5 pm.
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Very cold air will hold sway during mid-week, and here at th house I expect to see perhaps the coldest morning of the winter - will have to see exactly how the cold, cut-off evolves!
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