The large Pacific trough remains offshore west of California this morning. Rain and snow is falling over much of the northwest half of Arizona at sunrise and heavy rains and some thunderstorms continue in extreme southern California. Here in Tucson it is another mild morning - lows so far: airport 56F, Atmo 59F, here at house 48F. The top image shows middle cloud overhead and to the north. The second image shows eastern Pacific PW at 1200 UTC this morning (Saturday February 19th) and indicates that the Pacific trough has pulled a plume of higher PW back into the Southwest. So far not much to report from this part of the state. No precipitation measured across the eastern Pima County ALERT network during past 24 hours. I see that Kingman has had 0.72" of rain so far and that Flagstaff has had a sloppy mix of rain and snow that has totalled 0.70" so far.
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Models continue to forecast that this event will affect mostly the higher elevations of southeast Arizona with perhaps a tenth of an inch possible by 5 pm tomorrow afternoon in the Tucson area. The WRF-GFS midnight forecast for period ending at 5 pm on Sunday is shown in third panel, with most precipitation indicated over the Catalinas. The WRF forecast of composite radar reflectivity at 5 pm today is shown in bottom panel. This indicates some deep convection and perhaps thunderstorms moving across the metro area this afternoon and evening - so some spots might get considerably more rainfall, as we did here at house with the brief storm at the end of January.
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