Friday, January 04, 2013

Comparison Of 96-hour Forecasts

There were some rain and snow showers along Arizona's southeast borderlands last evening and night, with heavier precipitation to the east across southern New Mexico. Web cam image above shows a view of Las Cruces, New Mexico, at about 8:30 am this morning.

Low temperature here this morning (Friday, January 4th) was 36F after three mornings in the middle 20s.

ECMWF and GFS 500 mb forecasts are shown (above and below) for 96-hours from 00 UTC last evening - the forecasts are valid at 5 pm MST next Monday afternoon. There is considerable difference between the models at this relatively short time range. The difference in forecast heights is on the order of 150 m over the northern GoC, where the ECMWF forecasts a fairly significant closed low. Will be interesting to watch how the forecast models converge with time. Edited to add: The 12 UTC forecast runs this morning show several of the GFS ensemble members trending toward the ECMWF, with fairly dry but deeper short-wave digging into the Southwest. Morning run of NAM is fastest, and most northerly of the models for this next short-wave.

1 comment:

  1. And the NWS Abq is already gunning for this one to be the usual "cold, moist" and have changed the rain chance to snow. Just 3+ more changes on something that hasn't formed! (but I hope we all get soaking moisture, anyway)