Sunday, January 27, 2013

Next Event Approaching

Yesterday's rain event had ended here at the house by noon, but there were isolated showers around during the afternoon and evening, especially out to the northwest and also east of Tucson. The Atmo WRF-GFS predicted the pattern of the rainfall across southeast Arizona well, although the amounts were somewhat under-forecast. Rainfall here at the house ended up at 0.59". With amounts over an inch in the Catalinas, the Rillito Wash was flowing yesterday afternoon - the first time in quite a long while. Morning view of Catalinas from campus (top) and just below shot from Mt. Lemmon showing the snow mostly gone after the rain.

The next system will move in tomorrow with a strong and cold 500 mb short wave sweeping across Arizona. The early run of the WRF-GFS moves the cold front by before noon and has showers affecting mostly the high elevations areas of southeast Arizona. The forecast above is on the 5.4 km domain (total precipitation valid at midnight tomorrow night) and indicates the focus again on the Rim country. David Blanchard reported the heavy rains yesterday at Flagstaff were eating away the snow cover up there - next system should replace some of it.

The high-resolution forecast of total precipitation on the 1.8 km grid (below, also valid at midnight Monday night) indicates very light amounts at some some lower-elevation spots in Pima County - all-in-all the WRF forecasts a rather wimpy precipitation event here in the southeast part of state.

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